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Container spot freight rates on the transpacific trade into the North America west coast managed to defy gravity and edge up this week, while most other east-west trades witnessed a third consecutive week of declines. This week’s World Container Index (WCI) from Drewry showed its Shanghai-Los Angeles leg increasing 2% on the previous week, to end at $2,930 per 40ft, and meant it was now up 34% on the spot rate immediately prior to the outbreak of the Iran conflict. Other indices show similar movements – The Freightos Terminal showed a Far East-US west coast rate reading of $2,675 per 40ft, with head analyst Judah Levine noting it was 45% up on the pre-war rate. One forwarder, at the end of the TPM event in Long Beach at the end of March, which took place as the US and Israel launched their bombing campaign on Iran, toldThe Loadstarthe quoted rate per 40ft for his 2026 annual contracts leaped by $1,000 overnight as a result of the conflict. While he was derisive of that offer, it now appears carriers have largely managed to achieve that goal through a mixture of pricing discipline and capacity management, Xeneta head analysts Peter Sand tellsThe Loadstarin next Monday’s podcast. Xeneta data shows Far East-US west coast and east coast rates up by an average 50% since the war started. “Part of it is arguably due to the smart capacity management post-Chinese New Year, explained Mr Sand. “But 50% up is also testament to the fact that carriers have successfully been pushing up rates amid all the uncertainty that shippers also had to handle,” he said, but added that there were some early signs of shippers replenishing inventory. “It’s also shippers perhaps fearing that as we face the traditional peak season in the third quarter, there could massive congestion in the main hubs in South-east Asia. “So a lot of shippers have decided ‘let’s move my goods forward’ – Adidas, for instance, is front-loading its cargo ahead of the World Cup [in the Americas],” he said, adding that this was a ‘better safe than sorry’ approach – ‘bring my goods in so I won’t run short at a later stage with some unforeseen headwind’. However, the WCI’s Shanghai-New York leg lost 2% week on week, to end this week at $3,483 per 40ft, indicating that transpacific pricing trends are by no means uniform. However, with CMA CGM implementing a $2,000 per 40ft peak season surcharge on all shipments from Asia to the US, there is the prospect of further increases next week. On the Asia-Europe trades, the WCI’s Shanghai-Rotterdam and Shanghai-Genoa legs both declined 1% from the previous week, to end at $2,127 and $3,039 per 40ft, respectively. Drewry said carriers had finally begun to address the overcapacity on the trades, with “seven blank sailings announced for the coming week”, with effective capacity expected to decline 3% month on month on Asia-North Europe, and 10% month on month on Asia-Mediterranean this month. “Rates into North Europe and the Mediterranean peaked three weeks ago, and capacity is also up by 6%-9%, so it’s a mixed picture right now,” Mr Sand said. While Drewry expects Asia-Europe spot rates to remain stable next week, a key date for freight buyers on the trade will be 15 May, when carriers will attempt a series of new FAK (freight all kinds) rates. However, there is quite a spread between carrier ambitions: both Hapag-Lloyd and CMA CGM are aiming for $3,500 per 40ft to North Europe and around $4,500 per 40ft to the Mediterranean; and MSC has announced $4,400 per 40ft for both North Europe and the west Mediterranean.

DHL chief executive Tobias Meyer has praised the speed at which the company relocated its Middle East operations following the onset of the US/Israeli strikes against Iran, but warned that without a resolution, Asia-Europe trade could struggle. With its Express Middle East division hubbed out of Bahrain, DHL’s operations were exposed to Tehran’s retaliatory strikes against civilian and military infrastructure across the Gulf, forcing a seven-week closure of Bahrain airspace. “I’m very proud how colleagues in the Middle East handled the situation, but also more broadly how our operating divisions reacted to the changing environment and continue to execute the [necessary] measures,”Mr Meyer said during yesterday’s Q1 investor call. He added: “This includes the ability to shift, especially in our asset-intensive express network to continue to work on the cost and structural improvements as well as the established yield mechanisms.” Bahrain closed its airspace immediately US/Israel attacks began, but after Iranian counter strikes began, resulting in several deaths, the closure remained in place until 9 April. Mr Meyer said the division was swift to relocate its regional airfreight operations to Muscat and Riyadh, “which meant we were able to evacuate some aircraft out of Bahrain after several days of the conflict, with those aircraft then being productively deployed”, he added. “Our regional road network was extremely helpful in this situation to connect Riyadh and Muscat to those areas, the UAE, Qatar, Bahrain, but also Kuwait, where airspace was closed. So that enabled us to provide good service to our customers.” Similarly, the company turned to Oman and Saudi Arabia to resolve transit issues that emerged from the Strait of Hormuz’s closure, with the latter’s Red Sea ports offering alternative gateways for regional trade. This necessitated use of overland options, but Mr Meyer said the company “secured additional trucking capacity very early in the conflict to distribute containerised cargo across the region” – although this was only possible because of government intervention. Panellists inan IRU convened discussionon land transport across the Gulf Cooperation Council (GCC) countries noted that without governments and private sector swiftly collaborating, there would not have been an overland alternative to air and sea. Achraf Ellili, CEO of Saudi-based Flow Progressive Logistics, said: “Every authority has contributed to have the entire ecosystem working together meaning things we thought would take ages have happened in 47 days. The level of GCC work is something I’ve not seen before. I do expect full normalisation of this route after the war, but I do not expect things to return to normal either. Saudi as a logistics hub has been facilitated by the crisis and it is not going back in the box.” Despite DHL’s success relative to the situation, Mr Meyer noted that with the continuing airfreight capacity shortage from Middle Eastern carriers provoked by the conflict, trade flows from Asia to Europe could be hobbled. He said: “There is a broader impact on the air freight market for Asia-Europe, where we continue to see elevated rates. As the Middle Eastern capacity is not available, the hub carriers in the Middle East do not provide the same capacity we are used to. “That definitely continues to have an impact. We obviously remain cautious because the jet fuel situation raises prices, raises cost for our customers that also has effects on the demand side. But the Asia-Europe air freight market remains strong.” Inside the industry’s AI shift Complete The Loadstar’s ‘State of AI in the Supply Chain’ survey — and receive the full report and data before release. Take the 2-min survey

New widebody capacity into Ndola could be the jolt Zambia’s cargo sector has been waiting for, with industry players saying it may at last propel Simon Mwansa Kapwepwe International Airport (SMKIA) into its long-promised role as the Copperbelt’s primary gateway. NAC2000, the ground handler at Ndola, confirmed toThe Loadstarthat it was working with the airport operator to prepare for a possible 787 service by an African operator linking Ndola and Lubumbashi, originating from East Africa; a routing that would directly connect two of Africa’s most important mining regions. Local industry observers say the development would be genuinely “market-shifting” if it materialisef, opening up significantly greater capacity for both passenger and freight traffic in and out of Ndola – relief that has been long awaited. The development comes as mining‑related and high‑value cargo volumes in Zambia and the Democratic Republic of Congo (DRC) have surged. Jonathan Lewis, MD of NAC2000, attributes the growth to a combination of macroeconomic stabilisation and renewed investor confidence. “Deliberate policy changes by the Zambian government has spurred growth exponentially in the mining sector,” he said, adding that increased foreign direct investment, stabilised foreign exchange, and improved hydropower availability have all contributed to a more favourable operating environment. The result is a sharp rise in demand for time‑critical shipments, particularly heavy‑duty mining spares, chemicals used in mineral processing, and dangerous goods such as detonators, which aviation handles more reliably. “Road network infrastructure is largely in a poor state from entry points leading to the Copperbelt and beyond,” Mr Lewis noted. This explains why so much cargo is routed by air despite the higher cost. The imbalance between where cargo moves and where it is handled remains stark. Mr Lewis said around 60% of cargo processed in Lusaka ultimately ended up in the Copperbelt or the DRC. NAC2000’s recent investment in a widebody-capable high-loader appears to have already reshaped operations at Ndola. Mr Lewis said: “The equipment has the capability to service both narrow- and wide-bodied cargo aircraft,” making it now possible for all freighter types to operate at SMKIA. He sees the high-loader as a foundational step in positioning Ndola as a regional cargo hub, serving not only the Copperbelt but also the nearby mining towns like Solwezi and the mineral‑rich north-western province. He added: “The airport’s location could support agro‑export growth, while also strengthening cross‑border trade with the DRC, Angola, Congo Brazzaville, Burundi, Rwanda, and even West Africa.” Despite the infrastructure, utilisation of the new cargo terminal remains low. Mr Lewis described activity as “below par,” citing the dominance of narrowbody aircraft, leading to both extremely low inbound and outbound volumes. He also cited local customs regulations that may impact optimum utilisation of SMKIA, such as the lack of resident customs officers at the airport, which then leads to protracted and unnecessary delays in customs clearance of cargo. Restricted access to warehousing and delays caused by unserviceable equipment, such as x‑ray machines and cold rooms, compound the challenges. He also pointed to a “perceived reluctance” among airlines to act on feedback from freight forwarders and handlers. However, he stressed that the opportunities remained substantial: a booming mining sector, strong repair‑and‑return of spare parts flows, an established agricultural base, and underused cargo facilities that could support far higher throughput. Stakeholder engagement has been inconsistent, according to Mr Lewis. While meetings have taken place between the airport authority, the civil aviation regulator, customs, and government, he said they were “generally far and apart” and often excluded key cargo stakeholders such as GHAs. “To achieve international cargo hub status there is need for deliberate, inclusive, continuous, and transparent stakeholder engagements,” he said.The Loadstarinvited airport operator ZACL to comment on the latest developments, but no response was received by the time of publication. Airlines, however, are paying attention. Mr Lewis confirmed interest from Astral Aviation, Kenya Airways, Ethiopian Airlines, and Stabo Air, all of which are aware of Ndola’s upgraded capabilities. The potential 787 operation is the clearest sign yet that carriers are reassessing the Copperbelt’s role in regional cargo flows. For Ndola, the shift would bring meaningful belly capacity for the first time, linking the mining belt directly to global networks through East Africa and reducing the need for shippers to truck cargo to Lusaka. With mining output rising, new projects coming online in the mineral-rich Northwestern Province and the Lobito Corridor gaining momentum, Mr Lewis reckons Ndola is well placed to become a consolidation point for cross‑border cargo. But he emphasised that success would depend on regulatory clarity, infrastructure reliability, and a shared understanding of market realities. Actual policy implementation devoid of rhetoric is what will ultimately determine whether SMKIA fulfils its hub ambitions.

The container shipping market may appear robust, but “much of the current strength is borrowed”, and underlying fundamentals suggest a fragile outlook, warned Braemar analyst Jonathan Roach. “Rates are firm, utilisation is tight, and sentiment is broadly constructive,” he said.“But dig a little deeper, and the picture is more complicated than the headline numbers suggest. “And he cautioned that “much of the current strength is borrowed”. A key driver of the current strength is the continued rerouting of vessels from the Red Sea and Suez Canal, which has lengthened voyages and absorbed capacity that might otherwise be excess and weigh on the market. “That is propping the market up – but it is not a permanent fix,” Mr Roach said, warning that a faster-than-expected return to normal Suez transits could trigger a sudden capacity surge, which would be “a release valve opening, and the market would feel it quickly”. The Loadstarreported earlier this week thatCMA CGMwas doubling its Suez Canaltransits as shippers were prepared to pay a premium to move cargo quicker, via the Red Sea – and Linerlytica suggested this may prompt its rivals to do the same. Mr Roach suggested that an “upside scenario” would be if disruption continued longer than expected, or if delivery schedules slipped. This way, the market would “stay tighter for longer”. And he said: “The downside is sharper.” More Suez Canal transits would release capacity back into the system, “accelerating the move into oversupply and compressing the timeline for the correction”. However, Peter Sand, chief analyst at Xeneta, toldThe Loadstar: “I think carriers eventually will get back to the Red Sea, but they are in no rush, for various reasons. “They have one sizeable disruption to handle currently, which is the Middle East, on top of all the others – Houthi rebels, Trump tariff wars, Russia’s invasion of Ukraine. There will only be a full scale return once they can see that this is a safe thing to do; this is a steady thing to do; and we can reset our networks the way they were – at least through Red Sea with Suez Canal transits as we saw them back in 2023.” And Mr Roach highlighted another “genuine counterweight worth watching”. He explained: “China is moving fast. Faced with higher US tariffs, it is pivoting hard to expand its export reach – South America, Africa, the Indian subcontinent, the Middle East. These are longer, more complex trade routes, and they consume more vessel capacity per unit of cargo moved.” This re-shaping of trade flows adds “real ton-mile demand to the system” and could “absorb more of the coming supply than many expect”, he added. But even so, he believes demand growth will struggle to keep pace with supply. Global trade is forecast to expand just 2% to 4% annually, while a significant amount of newbuild tonnage is due to enter service between 2026 and 2028. “2026 still looks relatively firm; disruption and inefficiency are doing the work of keeping the market tight. 2027 is where the shift begins,”said Mr Roach And by 2028, oversupply would no longer be a forecast, but “the reality”. This, in theory, means rates will come under pressure across most segments and idle tonnage builds.And he added that the exposure of oversupply was not equal across segments. While larger vessels, above 7,500 teu, will feel the turn first, “because they are the ones driving cascading into secondary markets”, vessels in the 4,000 to 7,500 teu range would be the most exposed, “squeezed from both ends” – displaced by larger ships above and pushed into feeder trades below. Feeders and regional vessels below 4,000 teu are “relatively more insulated”, supported by structural regional demand, said Mr Roach, but he warned that older tonnage in the segment would become “increasingly vulnerable as conditions deteriorate”. Inside the industry’s AI shift Complete The Loadstar’s ‘State of AI in the Supply Chain’ survey — and receive the full report and data before release. Take the 2-min survey

HMM’s labour union has dropped its opposition to President Lee Jae-myung’s bid to relocate South Korea’s flagship carrier from Seoul to Busan. SeoulThe union and HMM’s management yesterday signed an agreement to move forward on the relocation, which will see the company rebuild its HQ in the city’s North Port. President Lee was elected following snap polls on 3 June 2025, after his predecessor, Yoon Suk-yeol, was impeached after a disastrous attempt at imposing martial law. He had made the relocations of the Ministry of Oceans and Fisheries and HMM to Busan part of his election campaign. He argued that their presence would bolster the port city as a maritime centre, and while the ministry moved, HMM’s employees resisted uprooting their families, the union making repeatedthreatsto go on strike. While yesterday’s announcement was sudden,The Loadstarunderstands that HMM’s senior management and government officials have been talking to HMM’s union leaders on the benefits of moving the company to Busan. HMM CEO Choi Won-hyuk said: “Although we encountered numerous disagreements and hurdles during the extensive consultations, we ultimately reached a consensus from a broad-minded perspective to contribute to the greater social cause of balanced national development.” The carrier will hold an extraordinary general meeting on 8 May to amend the company’s articles of incorporation, with the scale and timeline of the relocation to be decided after further consultation with the unions. Mr Choi added: “The reason global shipping companies are typically concentrated in the Seoul metropolitan area is due to the high level of operational efficiency found there. We intend to develop concrete strategies to maximise the efficiency of the Busan relocation, such as having employees responsible for finance and sales continue to work at the Seoul branch.” The government and HMM said that no effort would be spared to support HMM employees in the relocation. Minister for oceans and fisheries Hwang Jong-woo said a task force had been formed to support the relocation, which included representatives from relevant tax, finance, and fiscal authorities, and Busan municipal officials. The union leaders said that while they had concerns about the relocation, they decided to forgo their opposition “in favour of the greater good of developing Busan into a maritime powerhouse”. HMM Land-based Workers’ Union chairman Jung Sung-cheol added: “During the detailed consultation process, employees must be prioritised, and we must ensure that they suffer no disadvantages under any circumstances.” And Korean Finance & Service Workers’ Union chairman Lee Jae-jin said the relocation’s impact on employees’ families must be assessed, adding: “Comprehensive and tangible compensation plans, covering housing solutions, educational environments, and both tangible and intangible losses incurred during the relocation process, must be established to the satisfaction of the employees.” Inside the industry’s AI shift Complete The Loadstar’s ‘State of AI in the Supply Chain’ survey — and receive the full report and data before release. Take the 2-min survey

Newbuilding orders over the past week show that Cosco Shipping Lines is on a fleet expansion drive. The Chinese state-controlled operator’s subsidiary. OOCL. has ordered a dozen 13,600 teu LNG dual-fuelled ships at Hudong-Zhonghua Shipbuilding for $2.2bn for delivery between late 2028 and early 2030. With this order, OOCL will take delivery of 33 newbuildings over the next five years, with 21 other containership newbuildings, ranging from 18,000 to 24,000 teu, on order at affiliated shipbuilders Nantong Cosco KHI Ship Engineering and Dalian Cosco KHI . Cosco is also backing a dozen 9,200 teu and four 3,100 teu vessels Greek tonnage provider Costamare commissioned at Dalian Shipbuilding. The larger ships will be chartered to Cosco for 15 years upon delivery in 2028 to 2030, the others on eight-year charters to the Chinese operator upon delivery between 2027 and 2028. The total cost, of $1.32bn, is understood to be funded with Chinese leasing companies, with the 9,200 teu ships said to be priced at $110m each. MB Shipbrokers said Costamare’s commission appears to be one of the longest single orders of container vessels contracted by a non-operating owner. The Danish broker said: “Deliveries scheduled from 2028 through 2030 indicate that the project has been in the pipeline for some time.” Meanwhile, Sinotrans Container Lines, an intra-Asia carrier, might be making its debut in the larger vessel segment, after its shareholder, China Merchants Energy Shipping (CMES), commissioned four 8,200 teu and four 1,800 teu ships at China Merchants Heavy Industry for delivery in 2027 and 2028. The 8,200 teu ships are said to cost $105m each, while the feeders are priced around $34m each. CMES said the ships would optimise its container fleet capacity, improve trade services and strengthen its market competitiveness. Sinolines became a CMES subsidiary in 2021, shortly after the China Merchants and Sinotrans groups merged. The wider group appears to be consolidating its container shipping business, withincreasing purchasesof stock in domestic liner and logistics group Antong Holdings. Sinolines’ fellow state-controlled shipping line, China United, a regional carrier, this week ordered newbuildings for the first time in four years – four 6,400 teu ships at CSSC Huangpu Wenchong Shipbuilding for $300m. The ships, with 1,150 reefer slots each, would be delivered in late 2029. CULines’s last order was in 2022, for a 7,000 teu pair at Shanghai Waigaoqiao Shipbuilding, intending to deploy the vessels to the Asia-Europe lane. However, the freight market corrected in 2023 and the carrier sold the ships to Wan Hai Lines. Although CULines abandoned its Asia-Europe and transpacific services, it has been busy enlarging its market share in the Far East-Red Sea lane, pouncing on SeaLead Shipping’s downsized portfolio. Greek shipowner M/Maritime is making its debut in the container segment, after a decade in the dry bulk market. The John Mytilineos-controlled company has ordered a 2,800 teu pair at HD Hyundai Heavy Industries, for delivery in 2028. Each priced around $50m. The line said: “These transactions highlight M/Maritime’s disciplined growth model — strengthening its established dry bulk presence while selectively expanding into adjacent segments.” And the firm charter market for box ships has attracted Greek shipowners not previously in the segment. M/Maritime’s more established compatriot peer, Euroseas, is stretching its feeder ship orderbook to 10. The Aristides Pittas-controlled Euroseas has ordered a 1,800 teu pair at Nantong CIMC Sinopacific Offshore & Engineering, costing $33m each, and scheduled for delivery in 2028. The order comes with options for two more ships. Euroseas has also exercised options for two more 2,800 teu high-reefer boxships at Huanghai Shipbuilding, after an initial pair was booked in March, for $47m each. The second pair is scheduled for delivery in October 2028 and January 2029. These will be equipped with more than 1,000 reefer plugs. Inside the industry’s AI shift Complete The Loadstar’s ‘State of AI in the Supply Chain’ survey — and receive the full report and data before release. Take the 2-min survey

Key takeaway: Nearshoring’s hard data is finally showing up in the AAR (Association of American Railroads) numbers. The question is whether Washington will let it continue. The nearshoring thesis has been the logistics industry’s favorite PowerPoint slide for four years or so. Now it’s showing up where it counts: on the rails. For instance, Mexican railroads reported 13,310 carloads for the week ending 18 April, up 47.3% compared with the same week last year, and 14,644 intermodal units, up ...